Five Mistakes When Reading Scratch-Off Data

1. Treating unclaimed as unsold

A winning ticket can have been sold before its prize is claimed. A positive remaining count does not prove a corresponding winning ticket is still on sale.

2. Confusing any prize with profit

Overall odds include every qualifying prize, including prizes equal to the ticket price. They are not the probability of a net profit or of winning the top prize.

3. Comparing counts as probabilities

Ten unclaimed prizes and two unclaimed prizes are different counts. Without the relevant ticket inventory, that comparison alone says nothing conclusive about which unsold ticket has a higher chance of winning.

4. Ignoring dates and source corrections

Check the date on each game, not just the latest complete-import date. Changes are observed between downloads. A positive change may be a source correction rather than newly printed prizes.

5. Assuming a loss makes a win due

A losing streak is not evidence that the next ticket will win. Sampling from a finite print run is not strictly independent, but the public data does not identify the outcome of the next ticket. Set spending limits and do not chase losses.

Compare published game data · Sources and reproducible calculations

Lottery play is entertainment, not an investment. No method here guarantees a win.